Betting on football is tempting for all fans of the sport, especially when it comes to betting on your favorite team. But betting on football to earn money requires discipline vis-à-vis your emotions, a good level of match analysis, a good knowledge of football teams and types of sports betting, and finally the method. Prefer football bets on a championship you know.
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Football betting beat the bookmaker, not the opposing team
Whether online or in a tobacco shop, when you place a football bet, you must understand that you are not playing against the opposing team but against a bookmaker who sets the odds for football matches following a thorough analysis of the statistics accumulated and of the context of the football match.
In other words, in addition to the safety margin taken on the odds of football bets, bookmakers earn money on the share of emotion that you incorporate, often unconsciously, in the choice of your bets. Indeed, generally, a supporter will bet on a victory for his team even if he thinks that it is weaker than his opponent, for 3 reasons:
- he refuses to think about defeat (even more against a historical rival)
- he is embarrassed to talk about it to his fan friends (group pressure)
- he would be ashamed to bet “against” his team, because it is a bit like betting “for” the opponent, and this gives him an objective reason (the gain) to wish his team to be defeated.
The best way to escape this trap is to never bet football on your favorite football clubs: this is the basic advice that any bettor wishing to make money from football betting should follow.
How to bet football analysis before the match
If you create a football bet rapidly earlier than kick off, your analysis should be carefully broken down and will focus on the “conditions for success” of your bet. Take the example of a championship football match (which will therefore end in 90 minutes in any case) between team A and team B.
Let’s say you place your football bet on winning Team A.
For this to happen, Team A must score more goals than Team B, which means that:
- team A will create enough opportunity to score at least one goal
- which means she must be efficient, fit, or have a useful advantage (set pieces, etc.) over her opponent
- team B will not score at all, or if they score, will concede more goals than they have scored
- which means their attack must be weaker than team A’s defense, or team A’s attack is much better than team B’s defense
Formalizing the reasoning that leads us to make a prognosis makes it possible to give a better solidity to its analysis. Understanding what are the likely scenarios (there are too many possible scenarios) will give you the keys to imagine the most likely outcome of the match and therefore increase your chances of winning your football bets. To understand these scenarios, you will need to identify the data:
- differences between teams
- What are the forces involved? very well funded team against Petit Poucet, good attack against bad defense, etc. ?
- state of form
- Over the last 5 matches, how many wins / draws / losses on each side?
- stake of the meeting
- Is this a chopper game for one of the teams playing its season? A championship match after a Champions League match where one of the teams left a lot of energy?
- past statistics
- Between these 2 teams, how did the confrontations end?
- lawn condition
- Is the lawn in poor condition? Can this favor the less technical team (which a priori plays less on the ground)?
- players form
- How will Team A stop Team B’s fit man from going goal after goal?
- etc …
Harper Harrison is a reporter for The Hear UP. Harper got an internship at the NPR and worked as a reporter and producer. harper has also worked as a reporter for the Medium. Harper covers health and science for The Hear UP.